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As the decisive three-way battle for a Champions League spot between Eintracht Frankfurt, SC Freiburg, and Borussia Dortmund approaches on Saturday, the standings paint a relatively clear picture — at least on paper. Eintracht Frankfurt remains in the driver’s seat, holding third place with 57 points. However, recent results have cast doubt over their momentum. A 1-1 draw in Mainz followed by a disappointing 2-2 at home against FC St. Pauli has dented the team’s confidence. Two missed chances to seal the deal — and now the pressure is mounting.
Crunch Time: Frankfurt Looks to Avoid Math Games in UCL Race
SC Freiburg trails closely behind in fourth place with 55 points, while Borussia Dortmund sits fifth with 54. Should Dortmund win their next match by a two-goal margin, they would be all but assured a spot in the Champions League. That’s because Frankfurt and Freiburg face each other on the final matchday in Freiburg, and one or both are bound to drop points. If Frankfurt earns at least a draw in that match, they secure qualification. A win makes it a sure thing. Freiburg, on the other hand, would need to win — assuming a Dortmund victory — to punch their ticket to Europe’s top competition. In that case, Frankfurt would be eliminated. It sounds straightforward. Or does it?
A Bizarre Scenario That Could Flip Everything
There’s one hypothetical that throws a curveball into the mix. Let’s imagine Borussia Dortmund beats Holstein Kiel 2-0, and SC Freiburg defeats Eintracht Frankfurt in a goal-fest, 6-5. Admittedly, this isn’t the most likely outcome — but football is known for delivering some of the wildest twists.
In such a case, both Dortmund and Frankfurt would finish with 57 points and an identical goal differential of 70 scored to 51 conceded. Looking at the head-to-head records between the two, it’s no help either: Dortmund won 2-0 at home, Frankfurt won 2-0 in the return leg. Dead even.
What Happens If It’s All Tied?
So, what then? Rock-paper-scissors? A coin toss? Penalty shootout? A one-off decider at a neutral venue? The Bundesliga rulebook would be stretched to its limits. While this scenario is unlikely, it illustrates just how tight and unpredictable the race has become.
One thing is certain: Eintracht Frankfurt has their fate in their own hands. But to avoid relying on bizarre tiebreakers or last-minute miracles, they’ll need to rediscover their winning form — and fast.
